When giving some away makes sense to jump-start the diffusion process.

This paper uses an analytical model to examine when it makes sense to provide incentives to innovators to adopt a new product. The model allows for separate segments of innovators and imitators, each of which follows a Bass-type diffusion process. Interestingly “seeding” the market is optimal for a limited range of situations and these do not appear to include those where there is a downturn in sales (chasm) as sales move from the first to the second segment. Research has frequently identified different segments of adopters of new products. Categorizations include innovators vs imitators (Bass, 1969; Rogers, 1995; Mahahan et al., 1990; Im et al., 2003), technophiles vs “normal” people, and business vs consumer users. Further, considerable effort has gone into studying the influence of members of the first group on the second. This paper focuses on when, if ever, it makes sense for a manufacture of a new product to “seed” the market by subsidizing a few early adopters to speed the adoption process. The paper builds on earlier work by Kalish and Lilien (1983) which focused on the impact of widely available government subsidies on the adoption of socially desirable innovations (i.e. alternative energy sources) as well as the work of Jain et al. (1995). Unlike that work, we concentrate on providing subsidies (here free goods) to selective individuals in the context of a model which allows for separate segments of innovators and imitators and nests the standard Bass (1969) model.

Modeling Choice Among Assortments

In this paper we propose a model for describing consumer decision making among assortments or menus of options from which a single option will be chosen at a later time. Central to the derivation of the model is an assumption that consumers are uncertain about their future preferences. The model captures both the utility of the items within the assortments as well as the flexibility the items offer as a group. We support our model empirically with two laboratory experiments. In the first experiment we test the underlying assumptions. In the second, we compare the predictive validity of our model to that provided by other models suggested in the literature

Making Choices While Smelling, Tasting, and Listening: The Role of Sensory (Dis)similarity When Sequentially Sampling Products

Marketers are increasingly allowing consumers to sample sensory-rich experiential products before making purchase decisions. The results of seven experimental studies (two conducted in field settings, three conducted in a laboratory, and two conducted online) demonstrate that the order in which consumers sample products and the level of (dis)similarity between the sensory cues of the products influence choices. In the absence of any moderators, when sampling a sequence of sensory-rich experiential products (e.g., fragrances, chocolates, flavored beverages, music) with similar sensory cues (e.g., smell, taste, color, sound), consumers prefer the first product in the sequence. However, when sampling a sequence of products with dissimilar sensory cues, consumers prefer the last product. These findings (1) contribute to a better understanding of the role of sequential sensory cues on consumer choice formation, (2) have implications for effects related to sensory habituation and sensory trace fading, and (3) help resolve apparent inconsistencies in prior research on order effects in the context of choices for sequentially sampled experiential products

Alternative Explanations for Changes in Similarity Judgments and MDS Structure

[Excerpt] The basic purpose of our paper (Johnson et al., 1990) was to see if the repetitive task of providing similarity judgments affects the cognitive structure evidenced by those judgments. The data clearly indicate that the structure changed through the course of the task. Moreover, this change is consistent with a categorization-based response to task fatigue. Three primary criticisms have been raised in response to our paper (Malhotra, 1990): (1) fatigue is not directly measured, (2) our hypotheses do not follow from our categorization framework, and (3) our hypotheses and findings are more consistent with a learning framework

Digital Content Strategies

This paper studies content strategies for online publishers of digital information goods. It examines sampling strategies and compares their performance to paid content and free content strategies. A sampling strategy, where some of the content is offered for free and consumers are charged for access to the rest, is known as a "metered model" in the newspaper industry. We analyze optimal decisions concerning the size of the sample and the price of the paid content when sampling serves the dual purpose of disclosing content quality and generating advertising revenue. We show in a reduced-form model how the publisher's optimal ratio of advertising revenue to sales revenue is linked to characteristics of both the content market and the advertising market. We assume that consumers learn about content quality from the free samples in a Bayesian fashion. Surprisingly, we find that it can be optimal for the publisher to generate advertising revenue by offering free samples even when sampling reduces both prior quality expectations and content demand. In addition, we show that it can be optimal for the publisher to refrain from revealing quality through free samples when advertising effectiveness is low and content quality is high

Replication of the association of HLA-B7 with Alzheimer's disease: a role for homozygosity?

BACKGROUND: There are reasons to expect an association with Alzheimer's disease (AD) within the HLA region. The HLA-B & C genes have, however, been relatively understudied. A geographically specific association with HLA-B7 & HLA-Cw*0702 had been suggested by our previous, small study. METHODS: We studied the HLA-B & C alleles in 196 cases of 'definite' or 'probable' AD and 199 elderly controls of the OPTIMA cohort, the largest full study of these alleles in AD to date. RESULTS: We replicated the association of HLA-B7 with AD (overall, adjusted odds ratio = 2.3, 95% confidence interval = 1.4–3.7, p = 0.001), but not the previously suggested interaction with the ε4 allele of apolipoprotein E. Results for HLA-Cw*0702, which is in tight linkage disequilibrium with HLA-B7, were consistent with those for the latter. Homozygotes of both alleles appeared to be at particularly high risk of AD. CONCLUSION: HLA-B7 and HLA-Cw*0702 are associated with AD in the Oxford population. Because of the contradictions between cohorts in our previous study, we suggest that these results may be geographically specific. This might be because of differences between populations in the structure of linkage disequilibrium or in interactions with environmental, genetic or epigenetic factors. A much larger study will be needed to clarify the role of homozygosity of HLA alleles in AD risk

Attribute abstraction, feature-dimensionality, and the scaling of product similarities

This paper examines the attributes that consumers use when making product similarity judgments and their effect on similarity scaling. Previous research suggests that concrete brands are judged using dichotomous features while more abstract product categories are judged using continuous dimensions. This, in turn, suggests that the appropriateness of spatial scaling increases relative to tree scaling as one moves from brands to product categories. The results of two studies support an increase in the fit of spaces relative to trees from brands to categories. However, the abstractness of the judgments appears to be driving the effect, not the use of features or dimensions.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/30067/1/0000437.pd

Hyponatremia in a Cold Weather Ultraendurance Race

We assessed the incidence and etiology of hyponatremia in the 100-mile (161 km) Iditasport ultramarathon. Subjects (8 cyclists, 8 runners) were weighed and serum sodium was measured pre- and post-race. Race diets were analyzed to determine fluid and sodium consumption. Subjects were split by post-race serum sodium concentration into hyponatremic and normonatremic groups for statistical analyses. Seven of 16 subjects (44%) were hyponatremic. The hyponatremic group exhibited a significant decrease in serum sodium concentration (137.0 to 132.9 mmol/L, and the normonatremic group experienced a significant decrease in weight (82.1 to 80.2 kg) pre- to post-race. The hypornatremic group drank more friud per hour (0.5 versus 0.4 L/h) and consumed less sodium per hour (235 versus 298 mg/h) compared to the normonatremic group. In conclusion, hyponatremia is common in an ultraendurance race held in the extreme cold, and may be caused by excessive fluid consumption and/or inadequate sodium intake

Replication by the Epistasis Project of the interaction between the genes for IL-6 and IL-10 in the risk of Alzheimer's disease

Background: Chronic inflammation is a characteristic of Alzheimer's disease (AD). An interaction associated with the risk of AD has been reported between polymorphisms in the regulatory regions of the genes for the pro-inflammatory cytokine, interleukin-6 (IL-6, gene: IL6), and the anti-inflammatory cytokine, interleukin-10 (IL-10, gene: IL10).Methods: We examined this interaction in the Epistasis Project, a collaboration of 7 AD research groups, contributing DNA samples from 1,757 cases of AD and 6,295 controls.Results: We replicated the interaction. For IL6 rs2069837 AA x IL10 rs1800871 CC, the synergy factor (SF) was 1.63 (95% confidence interval: 1.10-2.41, p = 0.01), controlling for centre, age, gender and apolipoprotein E epsilon 4 (APOE epsilon 4) genotype. Our results are consistent between North Europe (SF = 1.7, p = 0.03) and North Spain (SF = 2.0, p = 0.09). Further replication may require a meta-analysis. However, association due to linkage disequilibrium with other polymorphisms in the regulatory regions of these genes cannot be excluded.Conclusion: We suggest that dysregulation of both IL-6 and IL-10 in some elderly people, due in part to genetic variations in the two genes, contributes to the development of AD. Thus, inflammation facilitates the onset of sporadic AD